SpaceX Updates  (Thread 9)

Time for a new SpaceX Updates  Thread 9. New info, and a too long thread 8

Thread 8:

Musk at ISS R&D

Quote

If you want to get the public really fired up, you really need a base on the Moon

In line with the earlier comments before Congress that pushed  for a cis-lunar COTS program.

Quote

Falcon Heavy requires the simultaneous ignition of 27 orbital class engines. There's a lot that could go wrong there. And I encourage people to come down to the Cape and see the first Falcon Heavy mission. It's guaranteed to be exciting. 
>

Translation: a high risk of failure on the first flight. No duh!

Quote

 

I see ISC in Adelaide as a good time to do the updated version of the Mars architecture. It's evolved quite a bit since the last talk.

>

I kind of think that if we downsize to Mars vehicle, make it capable of doing Earth orbit activity as well as Mars activity, then maybe we could pay for it using money for Earth orbit activities.

Subscale BFR/BFS confirmed to better make the business case (but still very large), and sooner so it can be used in LEO and cis-lunar space.

Red Dragon & Dragon 2 propulsive landings

Early Mars missions will use using the subscale BFR/BFS  system, so Red Dragon is cancelled. Capsules landing with side thrusters are now irrelevant to Mars entry/descent/landing as that'll be done using a lifting body - which allows for a  much larger heat shield and vehicle.

Without this testbed Dragon 2 propulsive landings are off the table for safety cert reasons (ahem - NASA suits & ASAP, again). Landing legs removed. Continuing to push the issue with NASA & ASAP would delay their crewed flights.

Propulsive landings may come back later - but they want to concentrate personnel and resources on getting Crew Dragon, FH, and the updated BFR/BFS architecture flying. And soon.

More demolition on LC-39A's rotating service structure.

It is a shame to see Red Dragon scrubbed, but it is understandable. Better focus on getting Dragon 2 ready for what it is, a taxi to/from LEO + cis-lunar space!

I still wonder if Super Dracos will have much of a benefit weight wise over a traditional LAS now though, guess it will be with re-usability in mind... but yeah, that sea water during landings

I really loved the question related to development of infrastructure related tech on Mars and how Elon tried to keep SpaceX's focus on being just the transportation provider!

I still hope there will be a role for The Boring Company though, I am a firm believer of going subterranean on Mars

SuperDraco's in a pusher LAS saves tonnes of mass and allows for Abort to Orbit, which a tractor LAS cannot do because it was jettisoned long before the need for AtO could arise.

Yeah. My hopes dealt with the Red Dragons on the 2021 & 2023 synod testing (and retesting) cycles for the gear that would eventually fly during the BFR/ITS test missions in 2025+. Sure we can test on the Moon, and on Earth in Mars-like conditions though. More rapid prototyping and fixing here anyway.

This will be a better way to go, and better for SpaceX in the bigger scheme of things -- and we for certain get a subscale BFR with a comparable range of power lifting capability (excuse me) to the Saturn V (likely exceeding it by 20%) for about 40% of the cost. Win-win.

Any guesses on when mini-ITS might make its first orbital flight?

Soon(TM).

All kidding aside, there are key milestones that SpaceX will use to measure progress of this project. BFR/ITS will be the Overarching branch, Subscale "BFR/ITS-Junior" will be a Derivative branch of that. Once past a certain set of milestones and reviews by the Engineers and Designers then they can get to Fabrication.

BFR/ITS, the big one, is already cutting metal, building components and forming carbon fiber. Has been for over two years. It's well underway. BFR/ITS-Junior has been whispered about since around that time so chances are it's been in development for the same timeframe.

My personal estimation? SpaceX is already on the job with this one, has been for two years+ already ... eeehh .. 2023. That's when they'll start doing test firings in Texas. (Sounds like a Pay-per-View, doesn't it?? "Test Fires in Texas" )

I think it will be at least 5 more years before we see followups to Falcon9/FH fly. 

After all this time an money spend developing F9 up to Block5 and doing FH as well, SpaceX need to start earning some cash to. Elon himself said it as well, how so you pay for all that? 

We already know the engineering team will shift from F9 to (mini)BFR, but even so... component testing, integration testing, etc etc. I predict 2022 or later for (mini)BFR.

Reasonable. 2022~2024 timeframe. Gives SpaceX time to do reviews and certs at each milestone, make changes where needed, recert, etc. I'm personally thinking it'll be 2023 for actual hardware testing phase and 2025 for an actual flight. They're gonna take things conservative and steady, and won't rush it.

It may be sooner if they plan to leverage a mini-BFR for the internet constellation mass deployment.

Phase 1 is targeted to start in 2019 with a max of 85 satellites per orbital plane, but F9/FH will only carry 20-25 in their standard 13.1m  long fairing and maybe 35-50 in a stretched ~17-18m DoD-EELV fairing. 

They need a bigger boat.

Earlier = better, and great if it's that early, but I'm not expecting it before 2021~2022.

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
Plan is to do powered landings on Mars for sure, but with a vastly bigger ship 

[than Red Dragon]

Andrew Fontain ✔ @andygen21
Should we expect you at IAC 2017 in Adelaide then?

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
Yes, I postponed publishing in order to present the updated interplanetary rocket & spaceship design in Adelaide. Will be on the final day.

[final day: Sept 29, 2017]

And....

https://www.axios.com/founders-fund-partner-leaves-to-launch-spacex-focused-fund-2466277199.html

Founders Fund partner leaves to launch SpaceX-focused fund

Luke Nosek is leaving Founders Fund, the venture capital firm he co-founded more than a decade ago with Peter Thiel, Axios has learned. His next role will be leading something called Gigafund, a new investment firm that initially will be focused on raising capital for Elon Musk's SpaceX, a Founders Fund portfolio company where Nosek is a director.

Background: A source says that Nosek has been spending an increasing amount of time on SpaceX business, and the idea behind Gigafund is to ensure that the space exploration company won't have debilitating capital constraints. An SEC filing suggests that it's seeking to raise an initial $100 million, with former Founders Fund venture partner Stephen Oskoui also involved.
>

And....

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/technology/spacex-is-now-one-of-the-worlds-most-valuable-privately-held-companies.html

Quote

SpaceX Is Now One of the Worlds Most Valuable Privately Held Companies

 

SAN FRANCISCO  SpaceX, the rocket maker founded by billionaire Elon Musk, has raised up to $350 million in new financing and is now valued at around $21 billion, making it one of the most valuable privately held companies in the world.

SpaceX's new financing was disclosed in public filings that were obtained by Equidate, a marketplace for private company stock. SpaceX declined to comment.

With their latest funding round, SpaceX joins an elite club of seven venture-backed companies valued at $20 billion or more around the world, according to research firm CB Insights. 
>

 

39A's RSS is looking bit moth eaten.

Yep. I'd say the termites got to it. 

I saw this a couple days ago, still a lot of steel to go. I dont think it is going away any time soon.

I was a bit disappointed with the amount of SpaceX stuff at KSC. They already have a bunch off stuff for Vulcan but not much stuff for SpaceX. Their Merchendise for their commercial partners is defiantly lacking. 

You mean at the visitors center? What about their online store?

https://shop.spacex.com

SES-11 will ride the Flight Proven™ B1032.2 core (CRS-10) uphill NET September 27.

Link...

Yep, just read about that. They'll be very satisfied.  

Something interesting, really interesting, that I noticed on the SpaceX Reddit ... under launches/manifest. (Source)

Year: 202X

Vehicle: Falcon 9 (!!!!!!!!!!)

Date: ? (unknown or not specified yet)

Trajectory: TLI ()

Mass: 5000kg (WHAT?!!!)

Mission: Resource Prospector

Customer: NASA

I mean, yeah but they're finally gonna pull the trigger on the REAL performance of Falcon-9 and stop sandbagging already?  

Resource Prospector is a big mining/ISRU rover for the Moon. The docs by NASA Ames have a planning date of 2021,

https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/leag2016/presentations/Wednesday/Colaprete.pdf

The most recent Capabilities page for Falcon 9 shows an expendable payload of 4,020kg to Mars, and who knows what Block 5 will do once it's actually tested. 5,000kg to the Moon should be a relative chip shot.

Testbed

Pop-up interview with SpaceX Director of Space Operations Garrett Reisman,

https://m.twitch.tv/videos/164683368

@DocM provided a link to a NSF article concerning Commercial Crew status in the CRS-12 thread, but it's so good that it bears relinking here. Strongly suggested reading, folks.  

Commercial Crew Readiness Report - NasaSpaceFlight.com Article